Secciones: Venezuela Bolivariana - Estados Unidos de América - Prensa / Medios comunicaciónTítulo: importante: Venezuela y las Encuestas - Riesgo de fraude para desconocer el resultado del referéndum si gana el SI favorable a Chávez Texto del artículo:
Desde el *CEPR* (Centro para la Investigación Económica y Política) en *
Washington* he recibido la comunicación, que reproduzco a continuación,
donde se advierte que hay riesgo de *FRAUDE* para desconocer el resultado
del referéndum sobre la reforma de la *CRBV* de *1999*, si el resultado se
torna favorable al gobierno del Presidente Chávez.
Citan, los investigadores del *CEPR*, las encuestas engañosas que han
ocurrido en el pasado para dar la impresión de la oposición tenía más
intenciones de votos a su favor (aquella famosa encuesta en el referéndum
del 2004, llevada a cabo por la influyente empresa US *Penn, Schoen, and
Berland* , la cual daba 58% de los votos a favor de la oposición y 41% en
contra. La realidad, confirmada por una comisión de observadores
internacionales, era al revés 58% a favor del Pdte. Chávez y 41% en contra
en las encuestas,
Como consecuencia de las quejas de la oposición y la investigación que se
hizo el Centro Carter publicó un informe que se puede bajar desde el URL
siguiente: http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/2020.pdf
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=U73l%2FlV3OaBunBnsbDpmPNe3XL%2BKItnw>
En el 2006 ocurrió otro FRAUDE preelectoral involucrando otra vez a la
citada empresa encuestadora. Chávez terminó ganando con 63% de los votos a
favor y 37% para la oposición.
Así, no solo la tendencia está a favor de la reforma, según el análisis a la
cual he llegado, sino que hay fuerzas que no quieren la democracia, es decir
medirse pacíficamente en las urnas y prescindir de la utilización de la
subversión como método para hacer valer drechos y prerogativas que no han
podido obtener por la vía del voto.
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) < cepr@cepr.net>
Date: 28/11/2007 16.34
Subject: Risk of Deceptions in Venezuelan Referendum, CEPR Warns
To:
[image: CEPR logo]
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=O5ucfpH%2Fi8nm1gw8WFLKede3XL%2BKItnw>
Press Release
------------------------------
*Risk of Deceptions in Venezuelan Referendum, CEPR Warns* *Recent History
Shows Use of Fake Polls, Other Efforts to Undermine Credibility of Electoral
Process *
**
*FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: November 28, 2007*
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x104
WASHINGTON, D.C. - There is a significant risk that fraudulent polls and
other deceptions will be used to challenge the results of Venezuela's
referendum, if proposed constitutional reforms are approved this Sunday,
according to Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) economist and
Co-Director Mark Weisbrot.
"The international media has not always exercised due diligence in its
reporting on polling data and elections in Venezuela," said Weisbrot, who
has authored papers on previous elections there.
"This opens up the possibility for the use of fake polling, as was done in
the last (2004) referendum, to cast doubt on the results if the proposed
constitutional reforms are approved," he said.
*In 2004, the influential U.S. polling firm Penn, Schoen, and Berland
,**published fake exit polls
*<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=w4wfApmhHgQvhPzMvuAIEde3XL%2BKItnw>
* on the day of the Presidential recall referendum, showing President Hugo
Chávez losing by a 59-41 margin.[1] The actual results, which were certified
by observer missions from the Organization of American States and the
Atlanta-based Carter Center, showed the opposite, with Chávez winning by a
margin of 58 to 41 percent.[2]
*
*The fake exit polls were not the only dubious polls that plagued the last
referendum. Most of the pre-election polls in 2004 showed the race "too
close to call." Although these were conducted by opposition pollsters, most
of the international media accepted them in their reporting. As CEPR
demonstrated at the time, it is extremely unlikely that a properly conducted
poll could have shown a result that was "too close to call." *
*The election's credibility was also attacked by a widely-cited statistical
paper[3] purporting to show evidence of fraud*.[4] CEPR showed that this
analysis was deeply
flawed<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=qs2P8fTOxu4JK7WZ3pvCWNe3XL%2BKItnw>
*and provided no such evidence; the Carter Center later commissioned an
independent panel of statisticians from U.S. universities, which confirmed
CEPR's finding and concluded that there was no statistical evidence of
fraud. Nonetheless, the Wall Street Journal and some Latin American media
outlets used this paper and the fake exit polls to claim that the referendum
was actually stolen through a clever electronic fraud.[*5]
On this basis of such analysis and fake exit polls, most of the opposition
rejected the results of the 2004 referendum, and went on to boycott the 2005
national elections.
*In the 2006 Presidential election, Penn, Schoen and Berland once again
produced questionable polling data showing the race to be in a " very close"
just before the election. Other pollsters, including Zogby International,
showed an 18-29 point spread favoring Chávez.[6] According to the Miami
Herald, this led to the sudden departure of Doug Schoen - who was
responsible for the Venezuela polling - on the eve of the election*.[7]
Chávez won the presidency by a margin of 63 to 37 percent.
"The international media's reporting on the current referendum so far is not
encouraging," Weisbrot said. He noted that on November 7th, "almost all of
the U.S. and international press reported that pro-Chávez gunmen had fired
on a crowd of peaceful protesters returning from a demonstration against the
reforms.[8] We now know that this is not at all what happened."[9]
Weisbrot also noted that the media has given wide coverage to a poll by
Datanalisis this week showing a defeat for the proposed reforms.[10] The
firm's longstanding ties to the opposition, and its serious polling errors
in the last referendum, were not mentioned in the press.
*The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent,
nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on
the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives.
CEPR's Advisory Board of Economists includes Nobel Laureate economists
Robert Solow and Joseph Stiglitz; Richard Freeman, Professor of Economics at
Harvard University; and Eileen Appelbaum, Professor and Director of the
Center for Women and Work at Rutgers University.
*
*CEPR receives approximately 80% of its funding from foundations, and
receives additional funds from a growing number of individual donors. We do
not receive any funding from governments (with the exception of a small
grant from Washington State in 2003). For more information, click
here<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=wNLF%2BJKXs3Vx4zKxVBy3gEx9DBO46f8s>
.*
##
Center for Economic and Policy Research, 1611 Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite
400, Washington, DC 20009
Phone: (202) 293-5380, Fax: (202) 588-1356, Home:
www.cepr.net<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=gJI8Rv3NRkaoo1fikviod9e3XL%2BKItnw>
------------------------------
[1] See Rosnick, David. "Polling and the Ballot: The Venezuelan Referendum."
Center for Economic and Policy Research. August 2004.
[2] Former President Jimmy Carter noted after observing the referendum that
the opposition "deliberately distributed this erroneous [Penn, Schoen, and
Berland] exit poll data in order to build up, not only the expectation of
victory, but also to influence the people still standing in line."
[3] Hausmann, Ricardo; and Roberto Rigobón. "In Search of the Black Swan:
Analysis of the Statistical
Evidence of Electoral Fraud in Venezuela". September 3, 2004. Available at:
http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~rhausma/new/blackswan03.pdf
[4] The Carter Center. "Observing the Venezuela Presidential Recall
Referendum: Comprehensive Report." February 2005. Available at:
http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/2020.pdf
<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=U73l%2FlV3OaBunBnsbDpmPNe3XL%2BKItnw>
[5] See *The Wall Street Journal*. "Conned in Caracas." September 9, 2004.
[6] Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research. "Chávez Reaches 60% in
Venezuelan Election." November 28, 2006.
[7] Gunson, Phil and Steven Dudley. "Sudden change at U.S. polling firm
startles Venezuelan opposition." *The Miami Herald*. December 3, 2006.
[8] See e.g ., The Associated Press. "Gunfire erupts after Venezuelan
students protest Chávez reforms; 8 injured." November 8, 2007; Bloomberg.
"Venezuela Students Shot After Anti-Chávez Protest." November 7, 2007.
[9] See the video<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=%2F993xGyDenKFrztlJRbd09e3XL%2BKItnw>(from
opposition Globovision TV) and the
*Wall Street Journal*
report<http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=W0vM2EaHgFKG7OkGGJadIte3XL%2BKItnw>,
Lyons, John and José de Córdoba, "To Oppose Chávez, Youth In Caracas Rally
Behind Stalin," November 24, 2007, indicating that shots were fired by
people who came to rescue pro-Chávez students trapped in a building that a
crowed of anti-Chávez students had surrounded and set fire to. While all the
details of the incident may never be known, it is clear that media reports
describing the repression of peaceful demonstrators were inaccurate and
created a powerful false impression.
[10] See Starchevich, Johann. "Venezuelan leader accuses US of funding
campaign to oust him." Agence France Presse. July 11, 2004. "A previous poll
released in June by Datanalisis showed Chávez losing 42.6 percent 57.4percent."
**
--
Felix Jesus Velasquez Castillo
Coordinador General del
Secretariado Federal de
Izquierda Unida Venezuela
MOVIMIENTO POR UNA CULTURA SOCIALISTA Y UNITARIA
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